Keir today, gone tomorrow
Keir today, gone tomorrow
Sir Keir Starmer has today resigned as Labour Party Leader. However, he won’t be leaving Number 10 just yet – he stays on as caretaker Prime Minister whilst the Labour Party chooses its new leader.
What happens next - contest or coronation?
The Labour Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) set the rules and timetable, we understand that:
· Nominations for candidates open on 9 July and close on 16 July
· Candidates require the support of 81 MPs (or 20% of Labour Parliamentary Party)
1. Coronation: If only one candidate meets this threshold - They will automatically become Labour Leader, and Prime Minister in July at the close of nominations.
2. Contest: Should more than one candidate secure enough nominations by MPs, a formal leadership election will commence with Labour Party members balloted over the summer. To be on the ballot candidates nominated by MPs must also secure the nominations of 5% of Constituency Labour Parties or nomination by 3 affiliated trade union supporters from the wider Labour movement. (Trade Unions & Socialist Societies).
· This contest is expected to conclude before Parliament returns on 1st September 2026 when the new leader will assume office as Prime Minister.
Runners and riders
Andy Burnham has already declared his candidacy and is the overwhelming favourite following his by-election victory in Makerfield last week. It is likely that senior and former members of the cabinet follow Wes Streeting and align behind Burnham’s leadership bid to jockey for a role in the new cabinet.
There is a photo call with Andy Burnham in Westminster today, as he is sworn in as an MP. This could also be the start and end of the leadership contest, displaying the strength of support for the former Greater Manchester Mayor on the green benches and around the cabinet table.
Other riders? Those who remained loyal to Keir Starmer to the end and feel a sense of betrayal may seek to find enough nominations to prevent a coronation and force a contest. Notably, only a handful of serving Ministers, including Darren Jones, and David Lammy stood on the steps of Downing Street in support of the PM during his resignation statement.
In 2007, the left of the Labour Party similarly sought to force a contest and prevent the automatic coronation of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister- however in this case, their candidate John McDonnell failed to secure the required nominations.
The key question is will key figures within the Starmer Government, past and present, put themselves forward or will the sense of momentum behind Andy Burnham be so great that potential candidates instead seek to win his favour and secure Ministerial office.